Optimizing Sowing Date and Planting Density Can Mitigate the Impacts of Future Climate on Maize Yield: A Case Study in the Guanzhong Plain of China

Abstract

We used the APSIM-Maize model to simulate maize potential yield (Yp) and rain-fed yield (Yw) when adaptation options of sowing date and planting density were adopted under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 in the Guanzhong Plain of China. The results showed that Yp would decrease by 10.6–14.9% and 15.0–31.4% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for summer maize, and 13.9–19.7% and 18.5–36.3% for spring maize, respectively. The Yw would decrease by 17.1–19.0% and 23.6–41.1% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for summer maize, and 20.9–24.5% and 27.8–45.5% for spring maize, respectively. The loss of Yp and Yw could be reduced by 2.6–9.7% and 0–9.9%, respectively, under future climate for summer maize through countermeasures. For spring maize, the loss of Yp was mitigated by 14.0–25.0% and 2.0–21.8% for Yw. The contribution of changing sowing date and plant density on spring maize yield was more than summer maize, and the optimal adaptation options were more effective for spring maize. Additionally, the influences of changing sowing date and planting density on yields become weak as climate changes become more severe. Therefore, it is important to investigate the potential of other adaptation measures to cope with climate change in the Guanzhong Plain of China.