Solar energy and regional coordination as a feasible alternative to large hydropower in Southeast Asia

TLDR

Strategic dam planning and decentralized renewable deployment are often treated separately, despite being part of the same problem. We show that an integrated view of power system capacity expansion could transform Southeast Asia’s hydropower plans. Solar PV and regional coordination—via centralized planning and cross-border trading—enable these options. Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia can meet demand and CO₂ targets with substantially less hydropower—ranging from halting all Lower Mekong dams to building only 82%—while only slightly raising cumulative costs (up to 2.4%) and reducing river fragmentation, benefiting ecosystems and riparian communities.

Abstract

Abstract Strategic dam planning and the deployment of decentralized renewable technologies are two elements of the same problem, yet normally addressed in isolation. Here, we show that an integrated view of the power system capacity expansion problem could have transformative effects for Southeast Asia’s hydropower plans. We demonstrate that Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia have tangible opportunities for meeting projected electricity demand and CO 2 emission targets with less hydropower than currently planned—options range from halting the construction of all dams in the Lower Mekong to building 82% of the planned ones. The key enabling strategies for these options to succeed are solar PV and regional coordination, expressed in the form of centralized planning and cross-border power trading. The alternative expansion plans would slightly increase the cumulative costs (up to 2.4%), but substantially limit the fragmentation of additional river reaches, thereby offering more sustainable pathways for the Mekong’s ecosystems and riparian people.