Exploring the Gap Between Excess Mortality and COVID-19 Deaths in 67 Countries

Abstract

Most of the 67 countries experienced an increase in mortality during 2020 (Table ). Among countries with increased mortality (ie, those located above 0 on the y-axis in the Figure ), a small number appeared under the identity line, showing lower-than-expected mortality after subtracting COVID-19 deaths. Countries located above the identity line can be visually classified into 2 groups: 1 with several Latin American and East European countries, which exhibit a large gap between EM and CCM (eg, Mexico, 212 excess deaths vs 96 COVID-19 deaths per 100 000 population); the other, more heterogeneous group showed a moderate EM beyond CCM (eg, Greece, 57 excess deaths vs 45 COVID-19 deaths per 100 000 population). Countries with negative EM also had very low CCM and