Source sector and fuel contributions to ambient PM2.5 and attributable mortality across multiple spatial scales

TLDR

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is the world’s leading environmental health risk factor and a major threat in many regions. The study aims to evaluate sector‑ and fuel‑specific contributions to PM2.5 disease burden across global to sub‑national scales to guide targeted source‑reduction strategies. The authors integrated 24 global atmospheric chemistry‑transport model sensitivity simulations with high‑resolution satellite‑derived PM2.5 exposure estimates and disease‑specific concentration‑response relationships to quantify sector and fuel contributions. Globally, eliminating fossil‑fuel combustion could avert about 1.05 million deaths in 2017, with coal accounting for over half of the burden, while residential, industrial, and energy sectors also contributed substantially, and regions with high anthropogenic emissions experienced the greatest attributable mortality.

Abstract

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is the world's leading environmental health risk factor. Reducing the PM2.5 disease burden requires specific strategies that target dominant sources across multiple spatial scales. We provide a contemporary and comprehensive evaluation of sector- and fuel-specific contributions to this disease burden across 21 regions, 204 countries, and 200 sub-national areas by integrating 24 global atmospheric chemistry-transport model sensitivity simulations, high-resolution satellite-derived PM2.5 exposure estimates, and disease-specific concentration response relationships. Globally, 1.05 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.74–1.36) million deaths were avoidable in 2017 by eliminating fossil-fuel combustion (27.3% of the total PM2.5 burden), with coal contributing to over half. Other dominant global sources included residential (0.74 [0.52–0.95] million deaths; 19.2%), industrial (0.45 [0.32–0.58] million deaths; 11.7%), and energy (0.39 [0.28–0.51] million deaths; 10.2%) sectors. Our results show that regions with large anthropogenic contributions generally had the highest attributable deaths, suggesting substantial health benefits from replacing traditional energy sources. Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is one of the most important environmental health risk factors in many regions. Here, the authors present an assessment of PM2.5 emission sources and the related health impacts across global to sub-national scales and find that over 1 million deaths were avoidable in 2017 by eliminating PM2.5 mass associated with fossil fuel combustion emissions.