Load Forecasting Based on LSTM Neural Network and Applicable to Loads of “Replacement of Coal with Electricity”

Abstract

Abstract With the complete implementation of the “Replacement of Coal with Electricity” policy, electric loads borne by urban power systems have achieved explosive growth. The traditional load forecasting method based on “similar days” only applies to the power systems with stable load levels and fails to show adequate accuracy. Therefore, a novel load forecasting approach based on long short-term memory (LSTM) was proposed in this paper. The structure of LSTM and the procedure are introduced firstly. The following factors have been fully considered in this model: time-series characteristics of electric loads; weather, temperature, and wind force. In addition, an experimental verification was performed for “Replacement of Coal with Electricity” data. The accuracy of load forecasting was elevated from 83.2 to 95%. The results indicate that the model promptly and accurately reveals the load capacity of grid power systems in the real application, which has proved instrumental to early warning and emergency management of power system faults.