Trend detection in annual maximum temperature and precipitation using the Mann Kendall test – A case study to assess climate change on Anand of central Gujarat

Abstract

The study of rainfall characteristics changes is critical for agricultural, environmental and water resources projects. Generally, trend test performs for evaluation of direction and magnitude of changes, but the test is not able to demonstrate abrupt change in time series if it occurs. The trends of maximum atmospheric temperature, rainfall are analysed for meteorological data of Anand district in Central Gujarat India. The long-term change in temperature, rainfall (Seasonal & Annual) has been analysed by correlation and linear trend analysis. The increasing trend in MMAX temperature and decreasing trends in TMRF, TMRF (J-S), is observed and is confirmed by Mann-Kendall trend test. It is observed that annual MMAX temperature has increased and annual TMRF decreased during the last 41 years in Anand of Central Gujarat., the TMRF (J-S) shows statistically significant decreasing trend shows statistically insignificant decreasing trend during the last 41 years and is confirmed by Mann Kendall trend at 5% level of significance. The Maximum temperature, rainfall during period 1970 to 2011 obtained from Department of Agricultural Meteorology, Anand were analysed. It is observed that Mean of maximum temperature shows increasing trend, total monthly rainfall and total monthly rainfall in the rainy season days shows decreasing trend in Anand of central Gujarat.