Pan-European meteorological and snow indicators of climate change impact on ski tourism

TLDR

Ski tourism is a major socio‑economic driver in Europe’s snowy regions, yet climate change threatens resort operations by reducing natural snowfall and complicating snowmaking, and a pan‑European assessment of these impacts is currently lacking. This study fills that gap by developing a pan‑European climate‑impact assessment for ski tourism within the Copernicus Climate Change Services’ European Tourism Sectoral Information System. The authors co‑designed the Mountain Tourism Meteorological and Snow Indicators using statistically adjusted EURO‑CORDEX projections (RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5) and UERRA 5.5 km reanalysis as input to the Crocus snow‑cover model, accounting for snow management practices. The resulting indicators are produced for 100 m elevation bands across all NUTS‑3 ski‑tourism areas, illustrated at continental and case‑study scales, and made accessible through a visualization app that enables multi‑dimensional exploration.

Abstract

Ski tourism plays a major socio-economic role in the snowy and mountainous areas of Europe such as the Alps, the Pyrenees, Nordic Europe, Eastern Europe, Anatolia, etc. Past and future climate change has an impact on the operating conditions of ski resorts, due to their reliance on natural snowfall and favorable conditions for snowmaking. However, there is currently a lack of assessment of past and future operating conditions of ski resorts at the pan-European scale in the context of climate change. The presented work aims at filling this gap, as part of the "European Tourism" Sectoral Information System (SIS) of the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S). The Mountain Tourism Meteorological and Snow Indicators (MTMSI) were co-designed with representatives of the ski tourism industry, including consulting companies. They were derived from statistically adjusted EURO-CORDEX climate projections (multiple GCM/RCM pairs for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using the UERRA 5.5 km resolution surface reanalysis as a reference, used as input to the snow cover model Crocus, with and without accounting for snow management (grooming, snowmaking). Results are generated for 100 m elevation bands for NUTS-3 geographical areas spanning all areas relevant to ski tourism in Europe. This article introduces the underpinning elements for the generation of this product, and illustrates results at the pan-European scale as well as for smaller scale case studies. A dedicated visualization app allows for easy navigation into the multiple dimensions of this dataset, thereby fulfilling the needs of a broad range of users.