Shrinking cities on the globe: Evidence from LandScan 2000–2019

TLDR

Shrinking cities have spread globally, marked by population loss, economic decline, and reduced spatial quality. The study aims to accurately identify shrinking cities worldwide to support economic prosperity and informed decision‑making. Using redefined natural city boundaries and LandScan data, the authors mapped global shrinking cities from 2000–2019. The analysis identified 5,004 shrinking cities covering 126,930 km²—27 % of cities and 22 % of area—concentrated in Europe, Eastern Asia, and the northeastern U.S.; China had the most (679), 41 countries exceeded 20, and median shrinkage ratios over 50 % were observed in Iraq, Iran, Austria, South Africa, Russia, Georgia, and Belarus, providing insights for planners to shift from growth‑oriented to precise, healthier urban strategies.

Abstract

Shrinking cities have spread across the globe in recent decades, characterizing significant population loss, economic decline, and decay in spatial quality. To maintain global economic prosperity in the context of urban shrinkage and support decision making in the direction, it is necessary to accurately identify shrinking cities on a global scale. We utilize redefined natural city boundaries and the LandScan dataset to identify and map shrinking cities experiencing population loss on the globe. As a result, we have identified 5004 shrinking cities worldwide, with a total area of 126,930 km 2 during 2000–2019. The ratio of which in number and in area is 27% and 22%, respectively. The shrinking cities are clustered and mainly located in Europe, Eastern Asia, and northeastern United States. There are 41 countries with more than 20 shrinking cities on the globe. The number of shrinking cities in China reached 679, which is the most. Among the 41 countries, the median value of the natural cities’ shrinking ratios of Iraq, Iran, Austria, South Africa, Russia, Georgia, and Belarus is >50%, indicating that the urban population loss in these countries is relatively serious. Our findings can be used to inform decision makers and urban planners to adjust the “growth-oriented” planning paradigm and adopt precise strategies, to form a healthier urban development.