A Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Bangkok, Thailand

Abstract

In this study, we propose a new mathematical model and analyze it to understand the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangkok, Thailand. It is divided into seven compartmental classes, namely, susceptible (<i>S</i>), exposed (<i>E</i>), symptomatically infected (<i>I</i> _<i>s</i> ), asymptomatically infected (<i>I</i> _<i>a</i> ), quarantined (<i>Q</i>), recovered (<i>R</i>), and death (<i>D</i>), respectively. The next-generation matrix approach was used to compute the basic reproduction number denoted as <i>R</i> _cvd19 of the proposed model. The results show that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if <i>R</i> _cvd19 < 1. On the other hand, the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium occurs if <i>R</i> _cvd19 > 1. The mathematical analysis of the model is supported using numerical simulations. Moreover, the model's analysis and numerical results prove that the consistent use of face masks would go on a long way in reducing the COVID-19 pandemic.