Evaluating the relationship between strong geomagnetic storms and electric grid failures in Poland using the geoelectric field as a GIC proxy

Abstract

We study intense geomagnetic storms ( Dst < −100nT) during the first half of the solar cycle 24. This type of storm appeared only a few times, mostly associated with southwardly directed heliospheric magnetic field Bz . Using various methods such as self-organizing maps, statistical and superposed epoch analysis, we show that during and right after intense geomagnetic storms, there is growth in the number of transmission line failures. We also examine the temporal changes in the number of failures during 2010-2014 and find that the growing linear tendency of electrical grid failure occurrence is possibly connected with solar activity. We compare these results with the geoelectric field calculated for the region of Poland using a 1-D layered conductivity Earth model.