Water scarcity in central Chile: the effect of climate and land cover changes on hydrologic resources

Abstract

Climate change, together with changes in land cover and water allocations, is expected to affect the availability of water resources. The long-term effect of these changes on available water resources in central Chile was comprehensively evaluated through climatic trends from 1982, land cover changes from 2001, and water allocations from 1980. Trends in climatic, land cover and hydrological variables were based on a wide range of data sources in combination with inter-annual climate variability analysis. Climate variables suggest trends that lead to a drier future. Land cover changes show increased agricultural and forestry extents, which have also shifted towards more southern regions, and a reduction in water and ice/snow covered areas. These changes have been encouraged by steady increases in water allocations. About 90% of evaluated gauging stations and 87% of analysed monitoring wells indicate declining trends. Future drier scenarios require further actions to address increasing water scarcity in Chile.