Investigating environment-related migration processes in Ethiopia – A participatory Bayesian network

Abstract

The influence of environmental change on human migration is complex. Despite major strides in understanding the environment’s role in migration processes, uncertainties associated with multi-scale factor interactions and their influence on migration still persist. This study aims to (a) understand how soil degradation and rainfall changes – in combination with socio-economic factors – in the northern Ethiopian highlands contribute to human decisions to migrate; and (b) identify barriers for adopting local policy measures to reduce migration needs. Therefore, we integrate place-based research with literature findings and the participatory development of a Bayesian network (BN) involving local policy makers and representatives from both villages and NGOs. Our results show two major influential factors that affect environment-related migration: (a) the sufficiency of a household’s agricultural production and (b) non-farm activities. According to our participatory BN, we conclude that environmental changes increase migration, either through high migration needs due to low agricultural production and/or through increased non-farm activities, which increases the necessary financial means to enable migration. We conclude that contradicting policy programs greatly hinder local measures to prevent soil degradation, potentially fueling migration, and that bottom-up and locally adapted strategies are particularly promising for sustainable land management in the region.