A Radiomic Nomogram for the Ultrasound-Based Evaluation of Extrathyroidal Extension in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

Abstract

PURPOSE: To construct a sequence diagram based on radiological and clinical factors for the evaluation of extrathyroidal extension (ETE) in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between January 2016 and January 2020, 161 patients with PTC who underwent preoperative ultrasound examination in the Affiliated People's Hospital of Jiangsu University were enrolled in this retrospective study. According to the pathology results, the enrolled patients were divided into a non-ETE group and an ETE group. All patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 97) and a validation cohort (n = 64). A total of 479 image features of lesion areas in ultrasonic images were extracted. The radiomic signature was developed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithms after feature selection using the minimum redundancy maximum relevance method. The radiomic nomogram model was established by multivariable logistic regression analysis based on the radiomic signature and clinical risk factors. The discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness of the nomogram model were evaluated in the training and validation cohorts. RESULTS: The radiomic signature consisted of six radiomic features determined in ultrasound images. The radiomic nomogram included the parameters tumor location, radiological ETE diagnosis, and the radiomic signature. Area under the curve (AUC) values confirmed good discrimination of this nomogram in the training cohort [AUC, 0.837; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.756-0.919] and the validation cohort (AUC, 0.824; 95% CI, 0.723-0.925). The decision curve analysis showed that the radiomic nomogram has good clinical application value. CONCLUSION: The newly developed radiomic nomogram model is a noninvasive and reliable tool with high accuracy to predict ETE in patients with PTC.