Economy-wide assessment of potential long-term impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Sudan

Abstract

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is expected to double Ethiopia’s electricity generation and impact River Nile flows to Sudan and Egypt. We analyse potential economy-wide impacts on Sudan of the GERD’s long-term operation using a computable general equilibrium model and outputs of previous studies from biophysical models. Based on a 20% increase in hydropower and an assumed rapid irrigation expansion timeline, the results show that the GERD could help increase Sudan's accumulated gross domestic product (GDP) by US$47-83 billion over the period 2020-60 (excluding initial investment costs and other GERD negative and positive impacts). The choice of crops in new irrigation schemes is key to increasing Sudan’s macro-economic benefits.