Linear response of the Greenland ice sheet's tidewater glacier terminus positions to climate

Abstract

Abstract Gaining knowledge of tidewater glacier (TWG) margin evolution, solid ice flux and their responses to climate over large spatio-temporal scales provides valuable context for the projection of future Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) change. Although studies of sector-wide responses of TWGs exist, studies at an ice-sheet-wide scale have only just become feasible. Here, we present a dataset of 224 annual TWG margins for 1984–2017 ( n = 3801), showing that averaged over regional scales, normalised terminus change is linear. Regionally linear retreat trends were identified across most sectors of the GrIS starting in the mid-1990s, although in contrast to previous studies, the northeastern sector is shown to have experienced sustained retreat since the mid-1980s. Through cointegration analyses, individual glaciers are shown to have differing sensitivities to potential climate drivers, though on a sector-wide scale the northwest and southeast are shown to be especially sensitive to annual sea surface temperature and June–July–August air temperature, respectively. Although 92% of the analysed glaciers experience retreat across the GrIS, observed increases in absolute flux for the entire ice sheet can be explained by changes in just 11 of these TWGs.