Methodology to Evaluate the Impact of Electric Vehicles on Electrical Networks Using Monte Carlo

Abstract

In preparation for the electric mobility technological transition in Colombia, an impact assessment of the electric power system is required, considering the increasing loading that must be able to be managed in the future. In this paper, a plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) charging simulation methodology is developed in order to dimension the impact of this type of load on power grids. PEV electric properties, user charging behaviors, geographic location, trip distances, and other variables of interest are modeled from empirical or known probability distributions and later evaluated in different scenarios using Monte Carlo simulation and load flow analysis. This methodology is later applied to the transmission network of Antioquia (a department of Colombia) resulting in load increases of up to 40% on transmission lines and 20% on transformers in a high PEV penetration scenario in 2030, increases that are well within the expected grid capacity for that year, avoiding the need for additional upgrades.