Governance modes and epistemologies of future-oriented vulnerability assessments: Example of a mixed-methods approach

Abstract

Vulnerability and risk assessments are one of the most common initial steps in climate change adaptation. Accounting for future vulnerability is necessary, because adaptation is planned for future climate risks. However, future-oriented vulnerability assessments are rare, and methodological and conceptual gaps exist. Particularly, investigating the causes of future vulnerability and understanding the socioeconomic processes driving it requires methodological development and stepping away from common quantitative approaches. At the same time, little attention has been paid to the epistemology of future-oriented vulnerability assessments and its implications for practice, as well as to governance modes where the results are intended to be used. In this paper, I synthesize literature on the epistemology of future-oriented vulnerability assessments, and on the governance modes, as well as discuss their roles in the science and practice of vulnerability assessments. Furthermore, I present a case with a novel mixed methods approach to investigate the mechanisms of future vulnerability development in Helsinki, Finland, for year 2050. I then critically appraise this approach in the light of recent literature from the perspectives of science and practice. Finally, I provide recommendations on connecting governance modes, vulnerability assessments, and epistemological positioning.