Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US

TLDR

These estimates likely overstate long‑run costs because climate change will unfold gradually, allowing individuals to adapt more broadly. The study uses random year‑to‑year temperature variation to document the relationship between daily temperatures and both annual mortality rates and residential energy consumption. Both relationships are nonlinear, with extreme temperatures driving significant increases, and business‑as‑usual climate projections suggest end‑of‑century rises of 3 % in age‑adjusted mortality and 11 % in residential energy use. JEL codes: I12, Q41, Q54.

Abstract

Using random year-to-year variation in temperature, we document the relationship between daily temperatures and annual mortality rates and daily temperatures and annual residential energy consumption. Both relationships exhibit nonlinearities, with significant increases at the extremes of the temperature distribution. The application of these results to “business as usual” climate predictions indicates that by the end of the century climate change will lead to increases of 3 percent in the age-adjusted mortality rate and 11 percent in annual residential energy consumption. These estimates likely overstate the long-run costs, because climate change will unfold gradually allowing individuals to engage in a wider set of adaptations. (JEL I12, Q41, Q54)