Pastoral Risk and Wealth Differentiated Herd Accumulation Patterns in Southern Ethiopia.

Abstract

We use herd history data collected among,Borana pastoralists in southern Ethiopia to test the conventional hypothesis that pastoral risk in the semi-arid lands of sub-Saharan Africa is largely covariate. While rainfall yields a clear covariate component to mortality patterns, most livestock mortality risk is attributable to household-specific factors. We find evidence of modest social insurance consistent with reciprocity motives. Marketed,offtake is insufficient to have any significant effect on herd dynamics. Since ex ante herd size largely determines ex post wealth, self insurance predominates and there appear to be quite severe poverty traps.