Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century

TLDR

The study examines the temperature‑mortality relationship across the twentieth‑century United States to identify adaptations for future climate change. The mortality impact of hot days (>80 °F) fell by 75 %—almost entirely after 1960—primarily due to widespread residential air conditioning, which also generated an estimated $85–185 billion in consumer surplus.

Abstract

This paper examines the temperature-mortality relationship over the course of the twentieth-century United States both for its own interest and to identify potentially useful adaptations for coming decades. There are three primary findings. First, the mortality impact of days with mean temperature exceeding 80°F declined by 75 percent. Almost the entire decline occurred after 1960. Second, the diffusion of residential air conditioning explains essentially the entire decline in hot day–related fatalities. Third, using Dubin and McFadden's discrete-continuous model, the present value of US consumer surplus from the introduction of residential air conditioning is estimated to be $85–$185 billion (2012 dollars).