External Democracy Promotion in Post-Conflict Zones Evidence from Case Studies

Abstract

This essay summarizes the findings from nine case studies1 on postwar democratic transitions. Many postwar countries develop into hybrid regimes. The hybrid character of these regimes stems from various sources, among them a lack of capacity, a lack of domestic demand for democracy, the negative fallouts of ethnic polarization, and the tutelage of external actors. The single most important factors that explain successful postwar democratic transitions are a high local demand for democracy, coupled with atypically low adaptation cost. The case studies identify two situations in which adaptation costs are atypically low. The first is in the context of a war for independence when democracy comes bundled with independence. The second is in settings in which democracy offers a way out of a damaging stalemate. The impact of peacebuilders on the democratic outcome is rather small.