Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect

TLDR

Large exchange‑rate shocks that exceed sunk market‑entry costs reshape domestic market structure, creating hysteresis. The study finds that temporary real exchange‑rate fluctuations can produce persistent hysteresis in trade, with recent dollar overvaluation inducing a shift in the aggregate pass‑through equation for U.S. import prices in the 1980s, supporting the hysteresis hypothesis.

Abstract

This paper shows that temporary real exchange rate fluctuations can have persistent (hysteretic) effects on trade. Specifically, when market-entry costs are sunk, sufficiently large exchange rate shocks alter domestic market structure and thereby induce hysteresis. This simple result has strong implications for exchange rate theory, t rade policy, and estimation of trade equations. Empirical evidence su ggests that the recent dollar overvaluation induced hysteresis in U.S. import prices. Namely, the aggregate pass-through equation (of exchange rates to import prices) shifted in the 1980s. The shift's nature and timing is broadly consistent with the hysteresis hypothesis. Copyright 1988 by American Economic Association.