Tax Reform, Income Distribution and Poverty in Brazil: anApplied General Equilibrium Analysis

Abstract

This case study considers two frequently advocated approaches to reducing indirect taxation in Brazil: reduction in taxes on food; reduction in taxes on intermediate inputs to agriculture. To asses the effects of both on income distribution poverty levels, a bottom-up general equilibrium model of Brazil (TERM-BR) is linked to a microsimulation model. It is shown that one of the favoured policies is more poverty reducing, the other more income inequality reducing. Perhaps even more importantly, the analysis demonstrates that the two policies lead to very different outcomes in terms of inter-state transfers; a major political barrier to reform in a federal state.