The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty

TLDR

Economic policy uncertainty is measured using a news‑based index developed by Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2013). The study seeks to capture U.S. economic policy uncertainty and test whether it forecasts excess market returns. The authors employ the Baker et al. news‑based EPU index to quantify policy uncertainty.

Abstract

Using the news-based measure of Baker et al. [Baker SR, Bloom N, Davis SJ (2013) Measuring economic policy uncertainty. Working paper, Stanford University, Stanford, CA] to capture economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the United States, we find that EPU positively forecasts log excess market returns. An increase of one standard deviation in EPU is associated with a 1.5% increase in forecasted three-month abnormal returns (6.1% annualized). Furthermore, innovations in EPU earn a significant negative risk premium in the Fama–French 25 size–momentum portfolios. Among the Fama–French 25 portfolios formed on size and momentum returns, the portfolio with the greatest EPU beta underperforms the portfolio with the lowest EPU beta by 5.53% per annum, controlling for exposure to the Carhart four factors as well as implied and realized volatility. These findings suggest that EPU is an economically important risk factor for equities. This paper was accepted by Wei Jiang, finance.