Sectoral Determinants and Dynamics of ICT Investment in Italy

Abstract

In this paper we make use of very detailed sectoral data for Italy to study both the aggregate evolution and the sectoral diffusion of ICT investment expenditure during the 1990s. In the aggregate we find that the 1992 recession strongly halted ICT investment, and only in 1999 the Italian economy recovered the same rate of ICT capital formation. Second, mixed evidence on diffusion is shown by the sectoral expenditure on ICT capital goods. Finally, an econometric analysis of sectoral ICT determination shows that, besides capital intensity and interest rates, R&D expenditure is a strong predictor of ICT investment expenditure. Hence, since R&D-intensive sectors are usually associated with the highest growth potential, ICT expenditure by those sectors may trigger virtuous growth dynamics.