Employment recovery in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic’s impact on the U.S. labor market is unprecedented. This article reviews economic research on recent pandemic-related job losses in the United States in order to understand the prospects for employment recovery. The research examines telework use, the incidence of job loss, disruptions in labor supply, and progress toward recovery. Massive temporary layoffs drove a spike in unemployment, and subsequent recalls of unemployed workers drove a rapid but partial recovery. The prospects for full recovery are murkier, both because the fraction of the remaining unemployed expecting to be recalled is decreasing and because the pandemic’s future course remains uncertain.