Results in Physics · 2020 · 103 citations · 42 references
Veterinary MedicineInfectious Disease ControlInfectious DiseasesDynamical SystemsInfectious Disease EpidemiologyOutbreak InvestigationInfectious Disease DynamicsNumerical Methods For Differential EquationsNumerical StabilityPopulation Dynamics ModelingStability TheoryTransmission DynamicsBasic Reproduction Number EstimationDeath CasesEpidemic ModelsExistence ConditionsInfectious Disease ModelsMathematical Modeling Of EpidemicsReproduction Number AnalysisTransmission Dynamics Modeling
We discuss a fractional-order SIRD mathematical model of the COVID-19 disease in the sense of Caputo in this article. We compute the basic reproduction number through the next-generation matrix. We derive the stability results based on the basic reproduction number. We prove the results of the solution existence and uniqueness via fixed point theory. We utilize the fractional Adams-Bashforth method for obtaining the approximate solution of the proposed model. We illustrate the obtained numerical results in plots to show the COVID-19 transmission dynamics. Further, we compare our results with some reported real data against confirmed infected and death cases per day for the initial 67 days in Wuhan city.
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Fractional Calculus in Bioengineering
Bruce J. West · Journal of Statistical Physics · 2007 · 2K citations