Future expansion of small hive beetles, Aethina tumida, towards North Africa and South Europe based on temperature factors using maximum entropy algorithm

Abstract

The small hive beetles (SHBs) cause dangerous damages to bee colonies in several countries. Some African countries represent the native land to these beetles. The SHBs are not well established in North Africa and South Europe (the closest land to the native countries). Therefore, this study aimed to model the current and future distribution of SHBs in Africa and South Europe utilizing temperature datasets. A total of 250 occurrence data was incorporated in the study. Six temperature variables were used in the Maxent analysis to model the suitability of the study countries for the SHBs. Three climate models were used to estimate the future distribution of SHBs in 2050 and 2070, considering the lowest and the highest limits of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (126 and 585). The high performance of the used model was confirmed by analyzing omission/commission rates as well as the area under curve. All future maps showed the potential expansion of SHBs towards the Northern parts of Africa and some parts in Europe. Such potential expansion was discussed in light of current distribution of SHBs. The study concluded that the SHBs can cause damages to bee colonies in new regions in Africa and Europe during the near future.