Multi-View Neural Network Ensemble for Short and Mid-Term Load Forecasting

Abstract

Accurate load forecasting is essential to the operation and planning of power systems and electricity markets. In this paper, an ensemble of radial basis function neural networks (RBFNNs) is proposed which is trained by minimizing the localized generalization error for short-term and mid-term load forecasting. Exogenous features and features extracted from load series (with long short-term memory networks and multi-resolution wavelet transform) in various timescales are used to train the ensemble of RBFNNs. Multiple RBFNNs are fused as an ensemble model with high generalization capability using a proposed weighted fusion method based on the localized generalization error model. Experimental results on three practical datasets show that compared with other forecasting methods, the proposed method reduces the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) by at least 0.12%, 8.46 (MW) <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> , 0.83 MW in mid-term load forecasting (i.e., to predict the daily peak load of next month), respectively, and reduces the MAPE, MSE by at least 0.19%, 2009.69 (MW) <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> and 0.30%, 3697.18 (MW) <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> in half-hour-ahead forecasting and day-ahead forecasting, respectively.