Machine learning models to predict length of stay and discharge destination in complex head and neck surgery

Abstract

BACKGROUND: This study develops machine learning (ML) algorithms that use preoperative-only features to predict discharge-to-nonhome-facility (DNHF) and length-of-stay (LOS) following complex head and neck surgeries. METHODS: Patients undergoing laryngectomy or composite tissue excision followed by free tissue transfer were extracted from the 2005 to 2017 NSQIP database. RESULTS: Among the 2786 included patients, DNHF and mean LOS were 421 (15.1%) and 11.7 ± 8.8 days. Four classification models for predicting DNHF with high specificities (range, 0.80-0.84) were developed. The generalized linear and gradient boosting machine models performed best with receiver operating characteristic (ROC), accuracy, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.72-0.73, 0.75-0.76, and 0.88-0.89. Four regression models for predicting LOS in days were developed, where all performed similarly with mean absolute error and root mean-squared errors of 3.95-3.98 and 5.14-5.16. Both models were developed into an encrypted web-based interface: https://uci-ent.shinyapps.io/head-neck/. CONCLUSION: Novel and proof-of-concept ML models to predict DNHF and LOS were developed and published as web-based interfaces.