Solar radiation prediction for a winter day using ARMA model

Abstract

Solar radiation prediction has a great importance for many applications such as PV power forecasting and solar water heaters. The need of solar radiation prediction increase over time and certainly the accurate prediction can greatly improve the performance of these applications. In this paper a prediction of solar radiation for a winter day using ARMA model is performed. The performance of this model to predict the solar radiation has been validated for a real database. Simulations results show that the effectiveness of ARMA model is proven to predict especially the small variation of solar radiation.