Prediction of Marine Traffic Density Using Different Time Series Model From AIS data of Port Klang and Straits of Malacca

Abstract

In the study of ocean engineering, marine traffic is referring to the study of the pattern of the density of ships within the particular boundaries at certain periods. The Port Klang and Straits of Malacca are known for one of the heaviest traffics in Malaysia and the world. The study of traffic within this area is important, because it enables ships to avoid traffic congestion that might happen. Thus, this study is mainly aimed at predicting or forecasting the density of the ships using the route through this waterway by using quantitative methods which are time-series models and the associative models from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. The moving averages, weight moving average, and exponential smoothing for the time series model and associative model have used multiple regression. The results show an exponential smoothing alpha 0.8 and give the lowest MAPE as 20.701%, thereby making this method to be the best in forecasting the future traffic density among the method categories.