Reliability estimation of jacket type offshore platforms against seismic and wave loadings applied in time domain

Abstract

A novel approach is proposed for the reliability estimation of jacket-type offshore platforms excited by dynamic loadings (wave and seismic) applied in time domain. The information on risk is extracted with the help of multiple finite element-based deterministic analyses. This feature is expected to be attractive to practitioners for routine applications without advanced expertise in the risk-based design concept. It will also be of interest to researchers since the proposed concept innovatively integrates several advanced mathematical concepts, including the extensively modified response surface method, advanced factorial design schemes, Kriging, and other techniques producing compounding beneficial effects. For verification, an operating platform is excited by multiple time histories of wave and seismic loadings generated using current design guidelines. The probabilities of failure of the platform are estimated for both the strength and serviceability performance functions using about 200 deterministic analyses. The results are successfully verified using 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.