Effectiveness of Penalties for Lockdown Violations During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Germany

Abstract

<i>Objectives.</i> To investigate whether the imposition of fines can mitigate the spread of COVID-19.<i>Methods.</i> We used quasi-experimental difference-in-difference models. On March 20, 2020, Bavaria introduced fines as high as €25 000 (US $28 186) against citizens in violation of the <i>Bundesland's</i> (federal state's) lockdown policy. Its neighboring <i>Bundesländer</i> (federal states), on the other hand, were slow to impose such clear restrictions. By comparing 38 <i>Landkreise</i> (counties) alongside Bavaria's border from March 15 to May 11 using data from the Robert Koch Institute, we produced for each <i>Landkreis</i> its (1) time-dependent reproduction numbers (<i>R</i>_<i>t</i>) and (2) growth rates in confirmed cases.<i>Results.</i> The demographics of the <i>Landkreise</i> were similar enough to allow for difference-in-difference analyses. <i>Landkreise</i> that introduced fines on March 20 reduced the <i>R</i>_<i>t</i> by a further 0.32 (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.46, -0.18; <i>P</i> < .001) and decreased the growth rate in confirmed cases by an additional 6 percentage points (95% CI = -0.11, -0.02; <i>P</i> = .005) compared with the control group.<i>Conclusions.</i> Imposing fines may slow down the spread of COVID-19.<i>Public Health Implications.</i> Lockdowns may work better when governments introduce penalties against those who ignore them.