Increases in surface ozone pollution in China from 2013 to 2019: anthropogenic and meteorological influences

TLDR

The study argues that reducing VOC emissions under Phase 2 of China’s Clean Air Action Plan is essential to reverse the rising ozone trend. Surface ozone increased nationwide from 2013 to 2019, rising 1.9 ppb yr⁻¹ overall (3.3 ppb yr⁻¹ in the North China Plain), with meteorology contributing ~0.7 ppb yr⁻¹, while a 15 % drop in PM₂.₅ did not curb the rise, indicating unmitigated VOC emissions and higher June–July temperatures as key drivers. Abstract.

Abstract

Abstract. Surface ozone data from the Chinese Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) network show sustained increases across the country over the 2013–2019 period. Despite Phase 2 of the Clean Air Action Plan targeting ozone pollution, ozone was higher in 2018–2019 than in previous years. The mean summer 2013–2019 trend in maximum 8 h average (MDA8) ozone was 1.9 ppb a−1 (p<0.01) across China and 3.3 ppb a−1 (p<0.01) over the North China Plain (NCP). Fitting ozone to meteorological variables with a multiple linear regression model shows that meteorology played a significant but not dominant role in the 2013–2019 ozone trend, contributing 0.70 ppb a−1 (p<0.01) across China and 1.4 ppb a−1 (p=0.02) over the NCP. Rising June–July temperatures over the NCP were the main meteorological driver, particularly in recent years (2017–2019), and were associated with increased foehn winds. NCP data for 2017–2019 show a 15 % decrease in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) that may be driving the continued anthropogenic increase in ozone, as well as unmitigated emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). VOC emission reductions, as targeted by Phase 2 of the Chinese Clean Air Action Plan, are needed to reverse the increase in ozone.