The CO₂ reduction potential for the European industry via direct electrification of heat supply (power-to-heat)

TLDR

Decarbonising industry is a key bottleneck for the EU’s 2050 climate neutrality target, and while replacing fossil fuels with low‑carbon electricity is central, the aggregate electrification potential and resulting system‑wide CO₂ reductions for diverse industrial processes remain largely unknown and uncertain due to cost considerations. The study conducts a comprehensive bottom‑up analysis of energy use in 11 industrial sectors to estimate the technological potential for industry electrification in three stages. The authors performed a bottom‑up analysis of energy consumption across 11 industrial sectors, covering 92 % of Europe’s industry CO₂ emissions, to estimate electrification potential in three stages. The analysis shows that 78 % of industrial energy demand can be electrified with existing technologies, 99 % with emerging ones, and that deep electrification would already cut CO₂ emissions based on today’s electricity intensity (~300 gCO₂/kWh) and could reduce industry CO₂ by 78 % and almost entirely abate energy‑related emissions by 2050.

Abstract

Abstract The decarbonisation of industry is a bottleneck for the EU’s 2050 target of climate neutrality. Replacing fossil fuels with low-carbon electricity is at the core of this challenge; however, the aggregate electrification potential and resulting system-wide CO 2 reductions for diverse industrial processes are unknown. Here, we present the results from a comprehensive bottom-up analysis of the energy use in 11 industrial sectors (accounting for 92% of Europe’s industry CO 2 emissions), and estimate the technological potential for industry electrification in three stages. Seventy-eight per cent of the energy demand is electrifiable with technologies that are already established, while 99% electrification can be achieved with the addition of technologies currently under development. Such a deep electrification reduces CO 2 emissions already based on the carbon intensity of today’s electricity (∼300 gCO 2 kWh el −1 ). With an increasing decarbonisation of the power sector IEA: 12 gCO 2 kWh el −1 in 2050), electrification could cut CO 2 emissions by 78%, and almost entirely abate the energy-related CO 2 emissions, reducing the industry bottleneck to only residual process emissions. Despite its decarbonisation potential, the extent to which direct electrification will be deployed in industry remains uncertain and depends on the relative cost of electric technologies compared to other low-carbon options.