Prediction of Sudden Cardiac Death Risk with a Support Vector Machine Based on Heart Rate Variability and Heartprint Indices

Abstract

Most methods for sudden cardiac death (SCD) prediction require long-term (24 h) electrocardiogram recordings to measure heart rate variability (HRV) indices or premature ventricular complex indices (with the heartprint method). This work aimed to identify the best combinations of HRV and heartprint indices for predicting SCD based on short-term recordings (1000 heartbeats) through a support vector machine (SVM). Eleven HRV indices and five heartprint indices were measured in 135 pairs of recordings (one before an SCD episode and another without SCD as control). SVMs (defined with a radial basis function kernel with hyperparameter optimization) were trained with this dataset to identify the 13 best combinations of indices systematically. Through 10-fold cross-validation, the best area under the curve (AUC) value as a function of γ (gamma) and cost was identified. The predictive value of the identified combinations had AUCs between 0.80 and 0.86 and accuracies between 80 and 86%. Further SVM performance tests on a different dataset of 68 recordings (33 before SCD and 35 as control) showed AUC = 0.68 and accuracy = 67% for the best combination. The developed SVM may be useful for preventing imminent SCD through early warning based on electrocardiogram (ECG) or heart rate monitoring.