Changes in Global and Regional Characteristics of Heat Stress Waves in the 21st Century

Abstract

Abstract Wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), a combined measure of temperature and humidity effects on thermal comfort, is used to define heat stress waves (HSWs). While emerging research has raised concerns on future changes in heat stress, for the first time, this study examines spatiotemporal changes in multiple HSW characteristics (intensity, duration, frequency, and cumulative mean intensity) in the 21st century under three emissions scenarios. It is the sustained nature of HSWs that impose more adverse impacts than extreme heat on a single day. HSWs are expected to be more intense, persistent, frequent, and influential due to anthropogenic influence. Models project the largest increases in multiple HSW characteristics will occur over the tropics and subtropics. The exception is maximum intensity, which displays a relative uniform increase over most global land areas. Analysis of regional population exposure to HSWs under different climate and socioeconomic scenarios emphasizes the importance of aggressive mitigation to minimize the potential impacts of HSWs. We further investigate how different regional HSW characteristics are projected to change relative to increasing global mean surface temperature (GMST). Our results confirm the varying rates and different trajectories at which regional HSWs change, independent of forcing pathway, strongly related to GMST. On both globally aggregated and regional scales, the maximum intensity and GMST are highly linearly associated, with an approximately 1:1 increase. However, the other three HSW characteristics are projected to change at a nonlinear rate per degree of GMST increase in general and display large regional variation in the rates of their changes.