CasGCN: Predicting future cascade growth based on information diffusion graph

Abstract

Sudden bursts of information cascades can lead to unexpected consequences such as extreme opinions, changes in fashion trends, and uncontrollable spread of rumors. It has become an important problem on how to effectively predict a cascade' size in the future, especially for large-scale cascades on social media platforms such as Twitter and Weibo. However, existing methods are insufficient in dealing with this challenging prediction problem. Conventional methods heavily rely on either hand crafted features or unrealistic assumptions. End-to-end deep learning models, such as recurrent neural networks, are not suitable to work with graphical inputs directly and cannot handle structural information that is embedded in the cascade graphs. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning architecture for cascade growth prediction, called CasGCN, which employs the graph convolutional network to extract structural features from a graphical input, followed by the application of the attention mechanism on both the extracted features and the temporal information before conducting cascade size prediction. We conduct experiments on two real-world cascade growth prediction scenarios (i.e., retweet popularity on Sina Weibo and academic paper citations on DBLP), with the experimental results showing that CasGCN enjoys a superior performance over several baseline methods, particularly when the cascades are of large scale.