Prediction of Septic Shock Onset in ICU by Instantaneous Monitoring of Vital Signs

Abstract

Septic Shock is a critical pathological state that affects patients entering the intensive care unit (ICU). Many studies have been directed to characterize and predict the onset of the septic shock, both in ICU and in the Emergency Department employing data extracted from the Electronic Health Records. Recently, machine learning algorithms have been successfully employed to help characterize septic shock in a more objective and automatic fashion. Only a few of these studies employ information contained in the continuously recorded vital signs such as electrocardiogram and arterial blood pressure. In particular, we have devised a novel feature estimation procedure able to consider instantaneous dynamics related to cardiovascular control. This work aims at developing a short-term prediction algorithm for identifying patients experiencing septic shock among a population of 100 septic patients extracted from the MIMIC-III clinical and waveform database. Among all the results obtained from several trained machine learning models, the best performance reached an AUC on the test set equal to 0.93 (Accuracy=0.85, Sensitivity=0.89 and Specificity=0.82).