Recent Progress in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting at the National Hurricane Center

TLDR

The NHC has markedly improved Atlantic tropical cyclone track forecasts over the past fifty years. This study documents recent trends in intensity forecast accuracy and examines the advances that have driven NHC’s improved intensity guidance. The authors analyze historical intensity forecast errors and assess new guidance methods that contributed to skill gains. Recent decreases in intensity forecast error and increased skill are attributed to these advances, with a brief projection of further improvement.

Abstract

Abstract It has been well documented that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has made significant improvements in Atlantic basin tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting during the past half century. In contrast, NHC’s TC intensity forecast errors changed little from the 1970s to the early 2000s. Recently, however, there has been a notable decrease in TC intensity forecast error and an increase in intensity forecast skill. This study documents these trends and discusses the advancements in TC intensity guidance that have led to the improvements in NHC’s intensity forecasts in the Atlantic basin. We conclude with a brief projection of future capabilities.