Public Health and Climate Benefits and Trade‐Offs of U.S. Vehicle Electrification

Abstract

Vehicle electrification is a common climate change mitigation strategy, with policymakers invoking co-beneficial reductions in carbon dioxide (CO₂) and air pollutant emissions. However, while previous studies of U.S. electric vehicle (EV) adoption consistently predict CO₂ mitigation benefits, air quality outcomes are equivocal and depend on policies assessed and experimental parameters. We analyze climate and health co-benefits and trade-offs of six U.S. EV adoption scenarios: 25% or 75% replacement of conventional internal combustion engine vehicles, each under three different EV-charging energy generation scenarios. We transfer emissions from tailpipe to power generation plant, simulate interactions of atmospheric chemistry and meteorology using the GFDL-AM4 chemistry climate model, and assess health consequences and uncertainties using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Benefits Mapping Analysis Program Community Edition (BenMAP-CE). We find that 25% U.S. EV adoption, with added energy demand sourced from the present-day electric grid, annually results in a ~242 M ton reduction in CO₂ emissions, 437 deaths avoided due to PM_2.5 reductions (95% CI: 295, 578), and 98 deaths avoided due to lesser ozone formation (95% CI: 33, 162). Despite some regions experiencing adverse health outcomes, ~$16.8B in damages avoided are predicted. Peak CO₂ reductions and health benefits occur with 75% EV adoption and increased emission-free energy sources (~$70B in damages avoided). When charging-electricity from aggressive EV adoption is combustion-only, adverse health outcomes increase substantially, highlighting the importance of low-to-zero emission power generation for greater realization of health co-benefits. Our results provide a more nuanced understanding of the transportation sector's climate change mitigation-health impact relationship.