Policy-Relevant Assessment of Urban CO₂ Emissions

Abstract

Global fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO₂) emissions will be dictated to a great degree by the trajectory of emissions from urban areas. Conventional methods to quantify urban FFCO₂ emissions typically rely on self-reported economic/energy activity data transformed into emissions via standard emission factors. However, uncertainties in these traditional methods pose a roadblock to implementation of effective mitigation strategies, independently monitor long-term trends, and assess policy outcomes. Here, we demonstrate the applicability of the integration of a dense network of greenhouse gas sensors with a science-driven building and street-scale FFCO₂ emissions estimation through the atmospheric CO₂ inversion process. Whole-city FFCO₂ emissions agree within 3% annually. Current self-reported inventory emissions for the city of Indianapolis are 35% lower than our optimal estimate, with significant differences across activity sectors. Differences remain, however, regarding the spatial distribution of sectoral FFCO₂ emissions, underconstrained despite the inclusion of coemitted species information.