A nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival in patients with osteosarcoma as secondary malignancy

Abstract

The prognostic factors for survival among patients with secondary osteosarcoma remain unclear. The aim of this study was to develop a practical nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with osteosarcoma as a secondary malignancy. The surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database was used for the identification of osteosarcoma cases. The total sample comprised 5860 cases of primary osteosarcoma and 268 cases of secondary osteosarcoma during the period from 1973 to 2015. The CSS and overall survival (OS) of primary and secondary osteosarcomas were analyzed. The predictors of CSS for secondary osteosarcoma were identified and integrated to build a nomogram. Validation of the nomogram was performed using concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. The results indicated that patients with secondary osteosarcoma had poorer CSS and OS than patients with primary osteosarcoma. The nomogram model exhibited high discriminative accuracy in the training cohort (C-index = 0.826), which was confirmed in the internal validation cohort (C-index = 0.791). In addition, the calibration plots confirmed good concordance for prediction of CSS at 3, 5, and 10 years. In conclusion, we developed a practical nomogram that provided individual predictions of CSS for patients with secondary osteosarcoma. This nomogram may help clinicians with prognostic evaluations and with the development of individualized therapies for this aggressive disease.