Critical Rare-Earth Elements Mismatch Global Wind-Power Ambitions

Abstract

Wind power needs to be expanded rapidly across the world to stabilize our climate. However, there are increasing concerns about conflicts between the supply of rare-earth elements (REs) (mainly neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium) and the global expansion of wind power. Here, we provide a dynamic, technology-rich, and regional-specific approach to exploring such conflicts among ten world regions through 2050 under four widely recognized climate scenarios. We find that the significant increase in RE demand driven by the ambitious 2050 global wind-power targets cannot be achieved without 11- to 26-fold expansion in the RE production. Material recycling and efficiency, production expansion, and technical innovation are promising for alleviating RE supply shortages in the long term. However, the existing global RE supply structure, along with the intensifying geopolitical and environmental constraints, could inhibit the rapid expansion of wind power, which calls for global cooperation to foster a sustainable and responsible RE supply chain.