A Rolling-Horizon Approach for Predictive Maintenance Planning to Reduce the Risk of Rail Service Disruptions

Abstract

This article proposes a model for the risk-based scheduling of predictive maintenance activities on a railway line to intervene when a track segment has reached a certain state of degradation, thus preventing faults and possible failures. With the aim of taking into account the stochastic nature of real environments, the rail-track degradation process is represented as a stochastic process, and the failure probability is evaluated as the probability of reaching a degradation threshold. Moreover, a rolling-horizon framework is introduced to manage newly available real-time information and unpredicted faults or maintenance activity delays. Whereas the traditional scheduling models are offline models that cover the long-term horizon but neglect operational disturbances, the presented model allows for dynamic day-to-day planning and adaptation of the maintenance plan to real-time information, thereby responding to the increasing understanding of real-world processes. The optimization problem on maintenance scheduling is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming problem based on risk minimization, in adherence to ISO 55 000 guidelines. Finally, the application of the approach to a real rail network is reported and discussed, with a focus on the planning of tamping activities at the operational level.