Simulation of the 2018 Tsunami Due to the Flank Failure of Anak Krakatau Volcano and Implication for Future Observing Systems

Abstract

Abstract Motivated by the unwarned tsunami disaster caused by the flank collapse of the Anak Krakatau volcano on 22 December 2018, we used a landslide tsunami model to explore potential tsunami observing and warning systems for the region. With the estimated volume of 0.24 km 3 and the relatively short duration (~3 to 5 min), the landslide of the volcanic edifice in the southwest sector triggered a tsunami of higher than 40 m in the vicinity. The tsunami, however, attenuated rapidly as it propagated away from the generation area, resulting in lower than 2 m wave heights at tide gauges around the Sunda Strait. Using the tsunami model, we demonstrated the capability of a ship height positioning method to detect the tsunami of amplitude ~20 cm associated with the event. Furthermore, assimilating the tsunami current velocity observed by high‐frequency oceanographic radars can produce accurate forecasts of coastal tsunami heights.