Are UCL Injuries a Matter of Bad Luck? The Role of Variability and Fatigue Quantified

Abstract

Upper extremity injuries are common in baseball. One of these is the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) injury. In the field of sports injuries, most research focuses on average kinematics and kinetics between subjects, whereas focusing on within-subject variability appears to be more relevant for determining injury risk. We constructed a simple explanatory simulation model to illustrate the relationship between within-subject load variability and risk, illustrating how pitchers with a higher load variability are more likely to sustain an injury compared to pitchers with less load variability. Furthermore, the model comprises the (theoretical) effect of fatigue on load variability and injury threshold over time.