Beyond Yield Response: Weather Shocks and Crop Abandonment

Abstract

Recent panel estimates of weather effects on crop yields have been central for discussing future food security under climate change, but these estimates only carry limited behavioral response. Growers can adjust harvest decisions when experiencing weather shocks. Using US county-level data on corn and soybeans, I show that harvested ratios, measured by harvested over planted acres, respond to temperature nonlinearly, and they are substantially decreased when temperature exceeds 35°C. Corn harvested ratios are more positively affected by moderate heat and less negatively affected by extreme heat, reflecting growers’ behavioral response incentivized by the higher revenue of corn. Under a 1.5°C warming, neglecting harvested ratio responses can overestimate production loss by more than 10% for corn but underestimates that by more than 15% for soybeans. Evidence of response heterogeneity suggests that market condition and crop insurance further complicate the induced harvest adjustments, and adaptation exists through within-season crop substitution and irrigation.