Carbon stock in Japanese forests has been greatly underestimated

Abstract

An accurate estimate of total forest carbon (C) stock and C uptake is crucial for predicting global warming scenarios and planning CO₂ emission reductions. Forest inventory, based on field measurements of individual tree sizes, is considered the most accurate estimation method for forest C stock. Japan's national forest inventory (NFI) provides stand-scale stem volume for the entire forested area based on (1) direct field measurements (m-NFI) and (2) prediction using yield tables (p-NFI). Here, we show that Japanese national and local forestry agencies and some research studies have used p-NFI and greatly underestimated the Japanese forest C stock (58-64%) and net annual C uptake (41-48%). This was because approximately 10% of the forest area was not counted in p-NFI and because the yield tables in p-NFI, which were constructed around 1970, were outdated. For accurate estimation of the forest C stock, yield tables used in p-NFI should be reconstructed or ideally field measurement campaigns for m-NFI should be continued. In the future, appropriate forest management plans are necessary to effectively use the high CO₂ absorption capacity of Japanese forests and these should be compared with other industries' CO₂ reduction plans from a cost-benefit perspective.